NFL hires in the Rooney Rule era

And then there were four.

The only minority head coaches in the NFL are Mike Tomlin of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Anthony Lynn of the Los Angeles Chargers, Ron Rivera of the Carolina Panthers and now Brian Flores of the Miami Dolphins.

Marvin Lewis, Todd Bowles, Vance Joseph and first-year coach Steve Wilks were all let go the day after the 2018 regular season ended. Hue Jackson was fired earlier in the season. And questions persist about whether some, like Wilks, were given sufficient time to turn their teams around.

The upheaval brings added attention to the Rooney Rule, which since 2003 has mandated that NFL teams interview at least one minority candidate for any head coach opening. But is the Rooney Rule working? We analyzed all 108 offseason hires since the rule went into effect to find out how well minority coaches have performed and whether they are put in positions to succeed as often as their white counterparts.

(Note: This does not include the hirings this offseason.)

Here are four of the metrics we used:

Overall win percentage: The overall win percentage during a coach’s tenure in one position.

Futures wins: The official Las Vegas projection for wins by a team. In this case, a quick indicator of how viable a coaching position is for a new hire, if we focus on first-season totals.

Average +/- wins: This measures the difference in per-season wins compared to the same time span before a coach is hired. If a coach averages eight wins in five seasons, and the previous five seasons the average was seven wins, the value would be +1.0.

Average hot-seat percentage: A metric created by Brian Burke of ESPN, this measures the likelihood of a head coach getting fired for going 4-12 based on his resume, historical data and other factors. A way to measure how precarious a coaching tenure really is.

Below are the most relevant questions that can be answered using data. One caveat: The sample size isn’t large enough to be too definitive. Still, the numbers are the best way to evaluate where things stand. There’s no denying that the gap between minority coach hirings (21) and white coach hirings (87) remains wide.

Explore the data for yourself — all 108 hires are shown below. Sort by the four metrics outlined above (overall win percentage, average +/- wins, futures wins and average hot-seat percentage), and click the filter button to view only the minority hires.

According to the data, white hires are twice as likely to be offensive coordinators (35.6% compared witih 19%), while minority hires are almost twice as likely to be defensive coordinators (47.6% compared with 24.1%).

Who are the assistants worth watching? The Undefeated’s Jason Reid, who has written a series of stories about the Rooney Rule, identified the top five most viable candidates below.

Although head coach Andy Reid calls the plays on offense, Bieniemy is getting a lot of love for his work with second-year star quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Reid is grooming Bieniemy for big things.

Spencer Ware on Bieniemy: “I think the biggest thing Coach Bieniemy [brings] to our offense is his intensity. … Having an entire offense with that same mentality is pretty exciting.” More on Bieniemy

With five years in the gig, Edwards has experience. Last season, the Vikings had the league’s No. 1 defense statistically.

Mike Zimmer on Edwards: “He helps with the game plan. He runs a lot of the meetings, the defensive meetings. Him and I really sit down and talk about all the different things that are going on.” More on Edwards

There’s a lot of buzz around him because of what the Cowboys’ D is doing.

Richard: “Guys respect you when you’re consistent each and every single day. They love you when they know it’s real. That it’s who you really are. That’s the point.”More on Richard

Staley has the rep of being great working with players and getting them to buy in.

Staley: “I’m still driven by passion. I catch myself sometimes, even out here in practice, trying to make a cut. … Being able to play through them vicariously, it’s a great feeling for me.”More on Staley

Hiring head coaches is far from an exact science, and the Rooney Rule is not a perfect solution to the NFL’s pre-2003 diversity concerns. But the available data suggest that minority coaches aren’t given tenures as long as their white counterparts, although they win more frequently. And while minority hires also lose more frequently, they take over a higher rate of bad teams in Year 1.

Which brings us back to this offseason. Eight head-coaching spots opened up at the end of the season. Six teams hired first-time NFL head coaches: The Cleveland Browns promoted offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens to head coach, the Green Bay Packers hired Matt LaFleur, the Arizona Cardinals went with 39-year-old Kliff Kingsbury, the Denver Broncos tapped longtime assistant Vic Fangio, the Cincinnati Bengals named Zac Taylor, and the Dolphins just introduced Flores. The New York Jets, meanwhile, hired former Dolphins head coach Adam Gase. And the Tampa Bay Buccaneers went with a known quantity in Bruce Arians.

Seven of the eight coaches are white.

And Bieniemy, Richard and other minority candidates will have to continue waiting for a chance to take the reins of a franchise.

Is there still work to be done when it comes to diversity among NFL coaches?

Yes.